Week up 1.01%! Year of the Rabbit show come to an end the first week. Opened on the eve of the rate hike, so many highly anticipated grand opening prices investors heart cool part of it, but at the same time, boots landing was so short-term advantage of this opportunity.
broker how they view? How they market to make judgments? Its investment strategy and how? Following drying out of the most representative view of the 2010 gold medal brokerage, strategy, I hope for your help.
Do panic! The main force is still diving? Stuck with the stock is likely to have saved! March the stock market changes are likely to occur? Tug of war behind the hidden financial trends!
Market to determine
CITIC Securities: Short-term worries ease the market optimistic about the 2 ~ 3 months
CITIC Securities believes that this interest rate increase is mainly deal in January may be higher in the CPI, while continuing to control inflation expectations. In line with market expectations, point also in line with the short-term worries eased. That the State through the Means the deposit reserve ratio is expected to short-term not be used again, because there are differences between interest rates and deposit reserve ratio, capital and will be gradually eased, but not out of control.
as interest rates fall, a bad policy to make short-term, liquidity will improve after the holiday, year on year inflation data will come down after the holiday, this series of negative expectations are gradually being digested, the other future there will be more positive factors in turn confirmed. Including (1) real estate policy has been introduced in the future will observe the changes in fundamentals; (2) the liquidity of capital markets in the pre-holiday peak, after the holiday credit and reserves policy will be clear, slow capital pressure ; (3) The two sessions will be held in early March, will implement a number of industrial policies; (4) needs to start the spring cycle of products will drive the implementation of the complement of inventory demand. Judging from the soil for the market development is also in the pipeline.
SW: The rally point in 2900 the high point or
Shenyin most technical point of view, it believes that the current systemic market temporarily rising stock market is difficult to dig new impetus maintain the economic growth of 9.6% in 2011, the former low-high judgments, interval 2700 to 2900 points.
From a technical perspective, in February 2011 may be ascribed to the Shanghai index down. First, from the combination of observations on K line, from August 2009 to adjust the trend since the 3478 points on the rail line form resistance, the current trend in this index is still in operation; second, 60-day moving average of the pressure posed in February, is 60 day moving average near the 2847, even break up the line, the space may be relatively limited; Third, the support under the file can refer to October 8, 2010 the gap. October 8, 2010 2656 points to 2678 points to leave the gap, in December 2010 closed 11 October 2010 the gap, in January 2011 to 2661 points probe, close to 2656 points along the lower gap, estimated at 2 January 2656 near a supporting role, close to such a temptation to do the technical bits can rally.
CSC: style conversion is a large probability of the event
CSC's analysis in the market, and gives an inventory cycle by examining the process of change in the industrial chain ideas. The view that in terms of the economic cycle from 2010, mainly secondary to the stock + the economic recovery in 2011 will take the initiative to fill inventory + into the cycle of acceleration.
currently experienced in October last year, the release of global liquidity and the second meeting is expected to rise quickly under the stock, and follow signs to the central bank to raise interest rates for the adjustment of the market into the stands in February 2011 that time, the market is at a very important observation period. On the fundamentals, it is a most important for investment, the convergence phase of the cycle transition, for the policy side, it is based on policy easing monetary policy and real estate inflation expectations of society as a whole observation window, the direction of the recovery period has been clearly need to closely track its progress.
The broker also noted that the cycle industry, the broader market 200 stocks accounted for 89% of the weight of the recovery cycle will discuss the style of conversion is equivalent to discuss the expected style of conversion will be the beginning of the first quarter, when the end of the second quarter.
delivery of equipment manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, the coal industry's needs and better recovery of production in other industries that inventory rebuilding is likely to take the lead, followed, steel, building materials, home appliances, chemical industry, will also gradually re-enter the inventory, while non-ferrous industry, inventory rebuilding will be the restoration of its production, from the analysis of the cycle industry point of view, should be relatively lagged behind.
investment strategy
CITIC Securities: spring to buy shares
CITIC Securities under the point of view, how to invest first of all should be clear, the market valuation of the future will not pursue high and high flexibility of stocks, to which the broker that is not obvious. Current price trends and the policy response has not yet subsided, the market still faces the risk of uncertainty, and is now honored immediately Yinglai performance reporting period, the market is difficult to over-pursuit of high valuations, small market, theme stocks, 2 months, 3 investment style on the month value should be based on mining stocks, blue chips, mainly underestimate the value of the shares.
prior period adjustments made from the large number of high valuations, high growth companies return value of the origin of this representation, the future to further tap the trigger, there are two main lines, one annual market, high growth performance, ultra- expected, the industries and companies with high dividends, such as agriculture, insurance, cement, machinery, construction blocks; the second is to promote industrial policy, such as energy saving, high-speed rail infrastructure company class.
recommendations concern: Sinoma International, Sinopec, China Railway Construction, * ST vanadium and titanium, Yantai Wanhua, Denghai Seed, Supor, square big carbon, China Unicom.
SW: agricultural products and other hot spots can be expected
SW that although the return of the Spring Festival holiday, a relatively large international market variables, and February 9 to raise interest rates A share also brought a trace of chill, but the disk of view, the gradual emergence of hot spots, do more signs of market exposure, especially in agricultural sector.
The broker pointed out that since last winter, the North continued drought in wheat and other food prices continued to rise, although the State Council promulgated a number of measures to stabilize prices, higher food prices is expected to have been inevitable, however, prices rise expect more and more serious, which is the agricultural sector performed strongly in recent days a pretext. And in February, the plate market is expected to continue to receive full attention.
First of all, animal husbandry and fishery sector has been from the November 2010 highs by 20% or more, adjusted more fully, and in this period, the agricultural futures prices have basically recovered but the previous high point; followed , under the influence of the disaster, inflation expectations appear, widely expected in January CPI will be 5% or more, the future of food prices will continue to rise.
recommendations concern: St. agricultural development, Liu of the shares.
In addition, the pre-high-speed railway, water conservancy sector is undoubtedly the brilliant performance of a policy support to the head brought a concept stock, Shenyin that subject to the same state, , new energy, machinery manufacturing, and other sections of the business, and related parts and components industry chain manufacturers are expected to benefit from the promotion of relevant national policies. Which may be looking for some good fundamentals, reasonable valuations, stocks are expected to send to switch investment target as February.
recommendations concern: Set Group (marine engineering), Conch Cement (Water-building benefits), the dawn of shares (automobile manufacturing + High Bonus) and so on.
CSC: Focus on three categories of stocks
investment strategy, CSC that the investigation should focus on consumption, comparing the strength of emerging and cycle and start opportunity.
for the consumer sector, continue to adjust the risk the stability of earnings growth needed to lift, and in inflation expectations was strongly suppressed in the case of policies, growth in the first quarter of the uncertainty of the data need to be confirmed.
for the emerging class of industry, CSC is more likely the logic of their investment to grasp the leading industries of the future, but for now things look, no doubt is the preferred high-end equipment manufacturing industry, which is among the particular the old and the renovation of traditional industries Yinglai again on the development of good, because of its combination of advantages and development potential of the valuation, including high-speed rail, defense, automotive, medium-term investment in the information industry will be an important part of the core assets, is an emerging industry in the selection in the differentiation process.
types of trades for the cycle to start the cycle to have a clear logic, and the government to curb inflation, and high-speed railway, water conservancy and protection of housing construction overweight will be an important trigger force, which is systemic conductive chain opportunities, it is worth focusing on.
for thematic investment, agriculture, defense is an investment option with macro-immune, while changes in investment structure based on the consideration period, the people's livelihood through this type of investment is always the subject, in which government-led High Speed Rail, water and protection of housing have to respond, follow-up lies in the gradual acceleration of private investment in areas of concern in areas such as telecommunications, railways, military, medical and so on.
recommendations concern: Gree Electric Appliances, Conch.
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