As President Putin took office, Russia turning away from the vulnerable since the state of the Soviet Union, on the world stage to start the recovery process, the relationship between Russia and the Western world has entered a new era, Western countries suddenly found the old days, Russia, the resignation suddenly disappeared, but the West is difficult to adapt to a sudden strong Russia, and therefore the relationship between the two sides become increasingly tense.
the information revolution brought about by billions of people and the political awakening active participation in politics increased, the field of international security can be manipulated in a decline, Islam and Christianity the world's long-term rift between rich and poor years of north-south conflict, there are two of the most intense competition have joined recently: This is the free schools of the old democratic capitalist countries and the rapid development of the emerging capitalist countries the energy battle, which is characterized by a more obvious and more authoritarian state capitalism model of development; another is between the old West and the emerging countries competition, the Southeast Asian countries, China and Russia, representatives of the latter.
competition between the two development models compete for the spiritual superiority is not a simple race. From the late 80s into the new century, human and other resources on a large scale redistribution. The results show that those who benefit from a thorough unswervingly liberal democratic capitalism over the country. In the new century, which occurred in the process of stagnation and even occurred in some places the back.
also appeared in the energy field of great change. If the last century, half of the past 90 years, most of the energy resources are in under the control of Western oil giants, then 10 years later, the situation has completely different. Today, most of the energy exploitation of the country belong to their company. the West, especially Europe's energy dependence with the nature of growth, even if it is only theoretical at present.
many people think that the current set off political and propaganda campaign against Russia, because Russia's enhanced international status, or because it is the political deepening of the central authoritarian tendencies. This conclusion can only be considered partially correct. happens is that the status of the recovery of the Russian Western countries are catching up with old The decline of the appeal and diplomatic skills of its decline. This is due to setbacks in Iraq, the United States, the European Union because of the crisis facing the new system appears to power as before, the recent winner to ensure that the future status will not be weak and rallied together to counterattack. < br> So the main reason lead to a new confrontation is very profound. Russia in many ways has become an international political and economic progress occurred in the great symbol. against the new competition will be even more profound, which is even stronger in Russia The general reaction, of course, it will not necessarily continue for a long time.
in new challenges and is likely to re-close. but only in the relative unity of the military confrontation between the re-emergence of institutional re-established when possible.
as before the United States to focus on NATO, and to maintain its position in Europe , and provoke new military and political confrontation may be its goal. There is also a very realistic plan, that is, through Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand and other countries, will NATO become a global military and political base.
established a strong advocate of responsible countries of the Commonwealth itself is rational, it should lead the struggle against new threats of international order. However, in the new era, let a group of people against another group of people competition not only difficult to become a reality, but also harmful, because it laid the new system of ideological differences and the seeds of confrontation.
the great international political and economic progress, strength and resources, is feeling the rapid redistribution of the external environment become more difficult to predict. Therefore, in terms of the new century, it features about the militarization of international relations and even the outbreak of an arms race. If Russia on the hook, and began to re-militarization of the global fuel, NATO would be more likely to continue eastward expansion.
can be expected, those emerging system, in Bank also retired. Recently the global economy has also been a destructive trend that use of the WTO is the founder of the organization the old capitalist countries interests. In general, trade protectionism, trade and investment conflicts warming is a precursor to one of the military conflict.
the ideological field will undoubtedly become increasingly intense competition. Democracy has become a mutual attack. the United States to reshape their attraction. Unfortunately, in the face of intense competition environment, the pursuit of the noble values of democracy struggle will inevitably characterized by geo-political conflict. This will hinder the emerging learned. At that time, severe pressure from the outside to consolidate the conservative elements of the Russian position. Now, those who are committed to implementing necessary reforms, it is easy to be seen as a spy for the rival countries.
diverse new competition the worst consequences brought about by global challenges of international cooperation in reducing the efficiency and quality. These challenges include the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, environmental degradation, the powerful Islamic extremism.
time frame for the new century already foresee .5-7 years later, Europe will emerge from the current institutional crisis and accelerate its economic pace. The United States will bid farewell to Iraq, out of the emotional return to normal, but introduced a more cautious as a positive policy. to resolve the current energy irrational confrontation, the establishment of energy in the European Union's political and economic pre-conditions will have.
between the two capitalist model The new confrontation, the ideological basis for the new competition might be broken. After all, these two models with the Start hinder us to find answers to global challenges, these challenges require us closer together. a new round of cooperation will be 90 over the previous century, the cooperation is more stable. then cooperation is the victor in the Cold War under the command and, therefore, doomed to complete failure it is.
but the era of large-scale cooperation will only come in the following circumstances: that man will not commit systematic errors (ie, structured and militarization of the new competition), no New Great War broke out. a new war is most likely in the still in a weak party, Russia should how to do it?
First of all, after years of losses and has been lowered after the blindly optimistic mood of victory is understandable, but quickly abandoned the idea. the global economy all the forecasts show the development of Russia in the near future can not raise its share of global GDP, now 2.5% in the month, if Russia can not achieve an annual average of 8% -10% of the steady increase in the amount of its share of the points also showed atrophy potential. Not only that, last few years to help Russia achieve a lot of factors (the global level can control the overall decline in the achievements of China's economy had been before the energy price rise) in the long term, and carries serious problems.
Second, the new century is the century of competition, need to shift to a knowledge economy. energy economy advantage is only temporary. must continue to improve the political system that prevent it from sliding into national development stalled dictatorship. in the economic and geopolitical conditions are good times, if you do not use semi-authoritarian state capitalism and the way to the new development paradigm shift, then Russia's future is destined to decline.
Third, you need to do everything possible to prevent further militarization and new competition institutionalized, as it is no good for long-term interests of Russia. Therefore, they should adhere to the line is to prevent the further eastward expansion and consolidation of NATO to guard against the establishment of alliances, the disarmament negotiations. Experience shows that many things are possible above be re-militarization of the use.
against the re-militarization does not mean giving in the new basis and update the case of military doctrine to revive the military. At the same time, the resumption of military power should be sensible to establish a clear demand for unilateral rather than in response to base on, even if it is for other non-symmetric response behavior.
Fourth, the power required to cooperate with all responsible, to prevent nuclear weapons, new large-scale conflict, the further proliferation of nuclear conflict in particular . they may cause deterioration of the international political environment, which is difficult to control. struggle for peace once again become a top priority issues of global political one.
Fifthly, the situation has become very complicated. and the Soviet Union during the phase ratio, the world's dependence on Russia have essentially improved. to expand, strengthen the situation of the world, training in the new phase of the new approach the company to maintain and strengthen the international status of Russia and its people.
Sixth, ; new era of confrontation, There is no reason to take a tough approach, it will only make the Russian lost just accumulated less powerful.
fact, Russia is no longer a failed state in an attempt to recover lost everything. He should start to re-bloom courtesy, not sarcastic smile, do not disregard the trivial acts of mischief. The most important thing is that Russia needs the construction of the new world to occupy a favorable position, not just content to recover lost or recovered because of incompetence to hand over the site.
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